2nd Half Over Under 2.5 Real Probabilities using Next Goal Predictor betting platform
Next Goal Predictor is an online tool for more demanding users who want to compile their own in-play real probabilities, based on their own methodology:
- Full Time probabilities to remain with current total goals (e.g. with 0 goals, 1 goals, 2 goals etc)
- Full probabilities to have more than current total goals (e.g. more than 0 goals, 1 goals, 2 goals etc)
- Full probabilities to have total current total goals (e.g. to have total 0 goals, 1 goals, 2 goals etc)
We use a data sample for both teams that consists of data from the last four (4) football seasons and data from the current season. Once each team has played more than ten (10) games in the current season, we drop the data from four years ago and only use data from the current and the last three (3) seasons.
You have choose to bet live on the game Burnley vs Ipswich Town. Also, for our example, the game is going to be started in a minute and the exact score is still 0-0. We want to bet for Second Half Time Over/Under markets:
- Over 0.5 / Under 0.5 2nd Half Time Period
- Over 1.5 / Under 1.5 2nd Half Time Period
- Over 2.5 / Under 2.5 2nd Half Time Period
- Over 3.5 / Under 3.5 2nd Half Time Period
- Over 4.5 / Under 4.5 2nd Half Time Period
As a user, you must Select:
- The Historical database (the number of past seasons data records) [Indicator 1]
- The game [Indicator 2]
- The Filter of data sample( One team as Home and the other as Away) [Indicator 2]
Also you must insert:
- the elapse time of the game [Indicator 5]
- the current total number of goals of the game [Indicator 4]
You get the following in play real probabilities for the 2nd Half Time Over / Under markets:
- Over0.5 2nd Half Time Period : Probability to have more than 0 goals = 75.41%
- Under0.5 2nd Half Time Period : Probability to remain with 0 goals = 24.59%
- Over1.5 2nd Half Time Period: Probability to have total 2 goals + Probability to have more than 2 goals = 34.43% + 6.56% = 40.99%
- Under1.5 2nd Half Time Period: Probability to remain with 0 goals + Probability to have total 1 goal = 24.59% + 34.43% = 59.02%
- Over2.5 2nd Half Time Period: Probability to have more than 2 goals = 6.56%
- Under2.5 2nd Half Time Period: Probability to remain with 0 goals + Probability to have total 1 goal + Probability to have total 2 goals = 24.59% + 34.43% + 34.43% = 93.45%
For our example, the game is at 45min (end of first half) and the total number of goals is 1. We want to bet for Second Half Time Over/Under markets:
- Over0.5 / Under0.5 2nd Half Time Period
- Over1.5 / Under1.5 2nd Half Time Period
- Over2.5 / Under2.5 2nd Half Time Period
- Over3.5 / Under3.5 2nd Half Time Period
- Over4.5 / Under4.5 2nd Half Time Period
You get the following in-play real probabilities for the 2nd Half Time Over / Under markets:
- Over0.5 2nd Half Time Period : Probability to have more than 1 goals = 83.33%
- Under0.5 2nd Half Time Period : Probability to remain with 1 goals = 16.67%
- Over1.5 2nd Half Time Period: Probability to have total 3 goals + Probability to have more than 3 goals = 22.73% + 19.70% = 42.43%
- Under1.5 2nd Half Time Period: Probability to remain with 1 goals + Probability to have total 2 goal = 16.67% + 40.91% = 57.58%
- Over2.5 2nd Half Time Period: Probability to have more than 3 goals = 19.70%
- Under2.5 2nd Half Time Period: Probability to remain with 1 goals + Probability to have total 2 goal + Probability to have total 3 goals = 16.67% + 40.91% + 22.73% = 80.30%
For our example, the game is at 45min (end of first half) and the total number of goals is 2. We want to bet for Second Half Time Over/Under markets:
- Over0.5 / Under0.5 2nd Half Time Period
- Over1.5 / Under1.5 2nd Half Time Period
- Over2.5 / Under2.5 2nd Half Time Period
- Over3.5 / Under3.5 2nd Half Time Period
- Over4.5 / Under4.5 2nd Half Time Period
You get the following in-play real probabilities for the 2nd Half Time Over / Under markets:
- Over0.5 2nd Half Time Period : Probability to have more than 2 goals = 71.79%
- Under0.5 2nd Half Time Period : Probability to remain with 2 goals = 28.21%
- Over1.5 2nd Half Time Period: Probability to have total 4 goals + Probability to have more than 4 goals = 23.08% + 15.38% = 38.46%
- Under1.5 2nd Half Time Period: Probability to remain with 2 goals + Probability to have total 3 goal = 28.21% + 33.33% = 61.54%
- Over2.5 2nd Half Time Period: Probability to have more than 4 goals = 15.38%
- Under2.5 2nd Half Time Period: Probability to remain with 2 goals + Probability to have total 3 goal + Probability to have total 4 goals = 28.21% + 33.33% + 23.08% = 84.62%
For the rest of the markets Over / Under, by changing the total number of goals during the in-play mode and using the above methodology, you can get real probabilities for
- Over3.5 / Under3.5 2nd Half Time Period
- Over4.5 / Under4.5 2nd Half Time Period
You can change the elapsed time according to the real time of the game and you can get different in-play real probabilities, depending on the time and the total number of goals that you have inserted in Next Goal Predictor.